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Old August 16th, 2008, 10:49 PM
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Default Some thoughts on volume taken in CONTEXT

On typical charts/platforms red volume bars simply mean the close that day was lower than the prior days close. Green bars means close was higher than the prior days close. One may assume if the candle closed higher than the day before, making the volume bar green, there was more buying than selling. But that's often not the case. Look at volume and price action as a team not separate, and be sure you're using context. If volume is high and there is a downtrend in place there was probably more selling pressure than buying pressure typically. Often candles may be disguised to look bullish with an EOD scalper buying parade or dead cat bounce for example. There is no simple way other than screentime and extreme dedication to learn to read volume in context.

Volume bars in typical charts/platforms have no way to even attempt to measure directional delta. There are high end platforms that have indicators to measure tick delta at bid or ask but it's not cheap and not straight volume. Also if you think about it as a move takes place the ticks are not always what they seem. You can have big ticks at ask but it's selling into the strength at the ask. There is no indicator that will tell you what is true bid or ask tick, thats why trading is so hard. If there was a magical indicator it would be sold for $20k and everyone with that much to spare would be rich.

Volume + Price action + Context = Higher probability that you're reads will be correct.

Understanding Context = being aware of all the surrounding data and don't focus on 1 thing/indicator/timeframe. Context is knowing the background strength or weakness of the play at hand. Look at a weekly 3+ year chart as potential context to shape your trading bias on a daily timeframe as an example.

ALL indicators are derived from price action (and sometimes volume) and therefore lag. Be selective in how you guys use indicators and of course once you find a method that works for you...get them greenbacks!
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Price is simply the 2 way auctions method of advertisement. Volume measures the willingness of market participants to transact at the advertised price (AKA perceived value).
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