Rant on current crisis

[Timmyb]

The Apparent Acceptance of Manipulation

I am posting this here because it is a opinion .Maybe in months i will look back on this and pat myself on the back. Maybe I will look back on this and think what a fool. Of course hindsight is always 20/20.
I haven't posted in a long , long time. Trading has been rough for me. And for others I imagine. I must say that I honestly never noticed things before but I am becoming more and more enraged about the market and the bailout.

I was fine until the GS Buffet fiasco. IMO there was obvious market manipulation and insider trading. Not to mention buffet I feel for once has gone too far. 78 years you can become king but it takes but one false presumption to knock you off the thrown. Obviously Buffet is getting a great deal. I mean he is guaranteed 10% dividend. But no let me go into a rant for a bit. I firmly now feel this whole deal is a crooked deal. Here are my reasons.

• Large swing upward before buffet news even while market was moving downwards
• Today's closing price is ridiculous compared to reality
• Buffet assuming that he is right on the bailout
  

First lets look at the market compared to the news release.......


Now I realize these things happen all the time, but at moments like this it becomes insane that these things can occur blatantly with no one caring. How is this ok but the Martha Stewart fiasco was fine.

and now today's close. If you can show me anything chart under 1 day that shows a close at 133 let me know , heck post it

here are all of mine......

THE LIGHT SHADED IS AFTER HOURS..

the 1 min, 5min, 10 min, 15 min, 30 min, 1hy, DO NOT SHOW 133

But OMG its 133 on daily??? honest now



as far as i am concerned the close was 130, I realize none of this may matter in the grand scheme of things. But think about this. What if Bufffet is involved with some in government to give more credibility to an approval no one wants?? And this closing price is just manipulation to try to show how great the buffet deal is making Goldman look??

The facts of buffet deal:

• Berkshire Hathaway will receive perpetual preferred shares in Goldman, which will pay a 10 annual percent dividend, or $500 million a year. Those dividends take precedence over other payments to common shareholders. Goldman has the right to buy back the shares at any time for a premium of 10 percent.
• In addition, Berkshire Hathaway will receive warrants to buy $5 billion in common stock at a strike price of $115 a share, which can be used at any time in a five-year period. Those warrants are already in the money: Goldman shares closed Tuesday at $125.05, up $4.27, and rose to $134.75 in after-hours trading after Mr. Buffett's investment was announced.

Not bad almost seems like no risk doesn't it.

Now how about these comments??

• Speaking on CNBC television today, the 78-year-old called on Congress to confirm by Friday that a bailout would be adopted, or risk throwing markets and the economy into further turmoil.
• He told CNBC Wednesday morning that he would never have made such an investment if he didn’t think that lawmakers would “do the right thing” by passing a bailout bill.

Far as I am concerned if this bill passes by Friday this is pure manipulation and insider trading. If buffet has any knowledge of the way things may unfold it is illegal imo. Either way this is all bs imo.

He is either trying to buy what he wants (the bailout) cause he is now fully loaded in most of his positions.

IMO we are due for a big fall he boys. I am not surprised if we see 8k on the Dow before the election. I hope Buffet gets killed on this trade somehow. Its a pure example of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.

As for the bailout being all that I really don't think so. Why is it when we fall 400 points everyone is freaking out. But when we fall almost the same amount but slower no one cares?? I mean look at 10,459 the government basically hit the reset button and we went right back to the 11,500 area, Only to be almost back where we started. In fact by End Of Week I believe we will be below where we started.


and here is my viewpoint, and has been for quite a while although 8k wasn't in my mind till this week.



So remember Buffet loves to wait 40 years to make money, Yeah Goldman is good but allot can happen and will happen. So think what you want, I don't want to be called crazy or insane. But this is the biggest insider scandal ever and we will all have to pay billions of our hard earned money.

Signing out

Timmyb

[cire2222]

buffet is the only guy who can do insider trading and it's legal. If buffet were to announce he is buying a stake in a company before he actually buys then he would never get the price he wants. Now im not speaking directly about Goldman (have not done homework you did) but about companies he takes a large stake in, this has been the case for some time now.

[cire2222]

as for the current crisis. It will come and go. I do not see us falling into a depression like many fear. The FED chief is a student and scholar of the last depression of the 30's. His view is that the powers that be did not step up and take action fast enough or efficient enough. Now that he is in filling the shoes of the same authorities that once pointed the finger at I feel he will do everything possible to keep us from a similar disaster. now if that is a good or bad thing for the long term view of our economy, who knows. But for the short term i think he can keep us out

[MC]

I think short term this works...but it's only delaying the essential. Another failure of fiat currency.

[Timmyb]

WOOOHOOOOO not happy that i was right but 8k here we come

[MC]

Let Risk-Taking Financial Institutions Fail - TIME

Let Risk-Taking Financial Institutions Fail!

By Ari J. Officer and Lawrence H. Officer

September 29, 2008

The Administration and Congress has felt compelled to do something about the "financial meltdown," so an inefficient and inequitable "bailout plan" has been rushed through the legislature, despite harsh criticism from the right and left. That's unfortunate. Both presidential candidates were stalling by qualifying the plan. Whichever candidate would have had the courage to reject outright this proposal would have the better claim to be President.

Do not be fooled. The $700 billion (ultimately $1 trillion or more) bailout is not predominantly for mortgages and homeowners. Instead, the bailout is for mortgage-backed securities. In fact, some versions of these instruments are imaginary derivatives. These claims overlap on the same types of mortgages. Many financial institutions wrote claims over the same mortgages, and these are the majority of claims that have "gone bad."

At this point, such claims have no bearing on the mortgage or housing crisis; they have bearing only on the holders of these securities themselves. These are ridiculously risky claims with little value for society. Consider the following analogy: It is as if many financial institutions sold "earthquake insurance" on the same house. When the quake hits, all these claims become close to worthless-but the claims are simply bets disconnected from reality.

Follow the money. Average Joes and Janes are not the holders of the other side of complicated, over-the-counter derivatives contracts. Rather, hedge funds are the main holders. The bailout will involve a transfer of wealth — from the American people to financial institutions engaging in reckless speculation — that will be the greatest in history.

Rescuing financial institutions is not the best solution. Yes, banks are needed to provide capital to businesses. But it is not necessary to spend $1 trillion to maintain liquidity. If the government is to intervene, it should pick and choose which claims to purchase: claims that are directly tied to mortgages would be a good start.

Let financial institutions fail, merge, or be bought out. The shares of the faltering institutions will be devalued, and they are likely to be taken over by stronger institutions-as has already happened. This consolidation of the financial sector is both efficient and inevitable; government action can only delay the adjustment.

The government should not intervene. It should leave overleveraged financial institutions to default on their derivatives obligations and, if necessary, file for bankruptcy. Much of the crisis has arisen from miscalculating the risks involved in a large book of positions in these derivatives. It is only logical that these institutions pay for their poor management.

Rather than bailing out Wall Street, we propose that the government should buy up the actual mortgages in question and do nothing else. The government should not touch any derivatives, that is, claims that do not directly tie into the actual mortgages. If money becomes too tight, then the Fed can certainly increase its loans to financial institutions.

Let the poorly managed, overly risk-taking financial institutions fail! Always remember that Wall Street and the real economy are not the same thing.

[MC]

All kidding aside...this is a CORRECTION, not a world ending meltdown. They let the bubble go on for WAY too long, made lending way to easy and cheap and now people are losing money and have become panic stricken again like back in Y2K. WTF, people like the bubble profits from 1995 forward but act like Chicken Little when the ATR hits the downside? The BIG gains can come with equal or bigger losses...that's how ATR works. :LOL: The market BADLY needs a real correction, otherwise the higher she goes the bigger and longer the bear cycle will be. We are in a bull cycle that has probably near run it's course. Perhaps 1 more push but I really feel it's nearing time for a full bear cycle.



Thoughts?

I didn't use log scale...this illustrates the wild ATR our market is saturated in.

[Chan]

I was always familiar with Dr. Marc Faber (Dr. doom)

his interview Friday was a great wake up call but nobody seen it.



Video- CNBC.com



here are some articles written by him in 2005.....if that gives him more credibility



http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/subscri...oad/051009.pdf





http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/subscri...oad/050705.pdf



http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/subscri...oad/050404.pdf

[aristoentertainment]

Good Video Chan

[MC]

Free Newsletter for Traders and Investors

GREAT read from Van Tharp about this crisis and bailout being in his opinion criminal essentially.