Index chatter...

[Jonathan]

Dow P&F Chart:




Longer term deal with the Diamonds:

[cire2222]

just tossing ideas out

[MC]

I'm with you Cire and Jon's longer term DIA chart.
I really am feeling based on volume on the monthly charts that the bottom is probably in.
We've tested the lows and no bites so longer term I'm still bullish and stand by my January prediction that the dow could taste that 14k level perhaps this year even.

That being said I don't trade off a monthly chart so I'll trade what my intraday shows me.

[cire2222]

sitting here late night we are down 150 points in the YM over night sesh, not looking good if this keeps up

[MC]

Originally Posted by cire2222

sitting here late night we are down 150 points in the YM over night sesh, not looking good if this keeps up

11,930 could be the next stop based on the 10 min chart support.
BTW...when is rollover, tomorrow night right?

[cire2222]

After falling faily big in the late hours, the index futures are up strong in the pre-market. Remember we will find some resistance in the s&p futures @ 1330-1335 area, a solid move above that is a bullish signal

[Carl Icahn]

A lot of bears looking at one piece of meat, wont be surprised if we squeez one more time before we break the Jan lows. One thing for sure i am 90% sure we'll break them in the next couple months

[cire2222]

anybody holding anything going into the weekend?

[cire2222]

[MC]

ALL the index ETF's are showing similar traits with divergence and volume based support. One set stands out from the others to me though and thats the SPY/ S&P. I think this guy has a chance at leading the way for what's to come in the broad markets.


Here is my view. I remain bullish mid term and think we could get a large rally before the herd expects it.
Shorts will probably SCREAM and cover from this next wave also.

Macd divergence is fairly large and macd histogram divergence is backing us up as well.

Volume, volume, volume. Folks volume like this down low is bullish, that's not retail, that's big bucks moving around and in this case buying in at the lows. Why do I think it's buying...look at the support level and how it's been fought with big $. Go to the intraday charts and look where the volume is focused at...down low. Pros don't buy high and sell low folks.

Yes we have a descending triangle, yes we have both volume by price and the top trendline as resistance. BUT the top trendline is pinching off and building pressure like a spring. This spring is getting tight and that's why I feel whichever direction it breaks will have some great momentum behind it. Based on the above backing reasons I have to carry a bullish bias and fade the herd here mentally.

All that being said, a wise trader may have a bias but rarely trades on it. You should be ready for momentum to either side for the best odds of a winner. If your aggressive you could buy at support down low. The more conservative approach will be to have a buy stop AND sell stop in place just outside the triangle so whichever way it breaks you would capture some of the momentum early and then just trail the stops and manage the trade.

Good trading
MC