Index chatter...

[cire2222]

Fear?

[MC]

Let's see if we can get a short in on a rally.

[MC]

If last nights chart didn't confuse you the bigger picture surely will.

We have the ema21 crossed below the ema50 which is bearish BUT all else looks bullish in this range to me. I would like to see the ATR indicator roll over and break that uptrend showing volatility slowing down. You can't get any bullish climbing on emotion which is exactly what the ATR is showing us here.

IF that long term uptrend breaks this $hit could get real nasty. I predicted a bull market in January for later this year...I still believe this will be the case based on the volume at lows showing support and the overall bigger picture. We'll know soon enough how nuts I am.

[cire2222]

[MC]

GLD (Candles) compared to DJI (white line on close).
Gold has overtaken and overshadowed the paper markets since Sept. 2005.
I love the inverse relationships in the markets, clearly money was shifted to the metals and other hard market items as the DJI and paper markets fell off. Look at that explosion on GLD! :-*

Lets now see with the large volume selling in gold and silver if the market can regain some footing in the coming weeks/months and beyond. ???

[cire2222]

what you do with something like this is sell a vertical call spread on the metals with pleanty of time and sell a vertical put spread on the DJI with plenty of time with the theory that the pair will come back together like it usually does

[MC]

Originally Posted by cire2222

what you do with something like this is sell a vertical call spread on the metals with pleanty of time and sell a vertical put spread on the DJI with plenty of time with the theory that the pair will come back together like it usually does

Now I've always been paronoid on that and this is what scares me away from options. The time decay and time related valueation stuff.
How close to the time they converge do you need to be in order to make money really?

I mean it's near impossible to really know the WHEN, so I'm gonna need a lesson on options in that reguard. I really want to get into them a bit more shortly. For now its consistance with futures for me though.

[MC]

Daily view




Weekly view

[Chan]

Barron's article... Are You Ready for Dow 20,000?

what do you think (outside the box) read:


http://online.barrons.com/article/SB..._magazine_main

[MC]

Originally Posted by J Chan

Barron's article... Are You Ready for Dow 20,000?

what do you think (outside the box) read:


http://online.barrons.com/article/SB..._magazine_main

I seriously want to mentor or intern with this guy. He thinks alot like I do, albeit he's much more experienced and clearly has more history and economic data to back his prediction than mine.

I think when I said we were should test the 14k's again most likely this year 98% thought I was nuts (and I may still be nuts). The other 2% had me on ignore otherwise they would have joined the rest of the people.

I also have mentioned the slow steady decline of the Y2K crash where investors had forever to feel the crush, unlike the 87 crash where it was over before they could say "sell". Seems I have a fellow nutjob to start reading about.