Watch List

[Chan]

these are stocks with decent fundamentals showing recent money flow into the sector as a whole.
charts tell the story (watch daily after close) looking for signals of possible moves to the upside or down based on overall market conditions. Volume is key as always.
CP has a somewhat predictable pattern of short term moves, up and down.
once you follow the stock and study the flags, consolidation/distribution, alighned with multiple signals such as fibs levels ect you may be able to play both sides or spreads. Timing and confimation!

[cire2222]

sweet we badly needed a thread like this, thanks chan i look forward to these plays

[Chan]

Here you need to use care and significant break of critical support areas, the coal sector is still strong, but getting heavy, you can not run up hill with out a rest or going back for supplies. .....to put it another way.

Remember, the money was made on commodities before you all arrived there.

? Now the flock is here. And we all know the story there.

I still believe the talking heads will keep luring in the flock then pull out the rug, when is the story, but look for real heavy stocks or weak stocks that got the float from the rising tide, simply because of the strength of the sectors. They are still weak junk.

Everything must be confirmed.

[Chan]

One more thing these are "watch list" not plays until confirmed, I have a bigger argument on a serious bounce coming this weak, before the trend continues.

There are indicators that would suggest to sit on hands.

[Chan]

Ntelos Holdings Corp (NASDAQ: NTLS)
Showing a typical pattern it did not break the 50% mark with some strength on what I affirm as a 'dark cloud cover"
but has shown similar pattern in past.
With the weak push today it could not close above the previous break out on Feb. 4th.
Disappointed investors are glad to get their money back, that was a key point in the move today.
This will more than likely show more weakness as market conditions approve of selling.

The prediction is that it could possibly form a right shoulder, and rebound if conditions are right or ???????

[Chan]

self explanitory.....

low volatility reading actually tells us is that the public does not expect the market to move much in the near future. If we realize that this is the motivating factor, we can easily see that the correct contrary interpretation is: a low volatility reading means that the market is soon to become volatile. Note that this contrary interpretation does not require a market prediction up or down. Rather, it just makes the prediction that the market will become volatile. Thus, the proper strategy would be to buy straddles, spreads, not just to buy puts.
Then once the direction is confirmed you can unfold the trade and ride the direction.
Or just wait for confirmation. Simple isn't it.
Although many see the same thing as us a contrarian would do the opposite,....yikes sound familiar?
well in this market everything that is suppose to happen doen't so..... KISS (keep it simple stupid) say that ya say it every morning... trade a plan or plan to fail.
good luck.

[Chan]

What impresses me most it the lack of movement, with the current volatility, yup I know it is related to oil, so rather then get whipped around by the volatile stocks in the sector... you can use the 30dma on the volume, the 10 day variable. this shows no interest in selling, a nice distribution/consolidation period, I would put this on a watch list we all know the price of gas is going up.
When the volume increases to above the 30 dma, and it stays above the 10 it could possibly make another move to the upside.
Looks like a great stock to trade a spread, covered call or stradle until direction is established.

If it breaks below the lower support line on the wedge on volume, that would be a obvious failure.

[Chan]

another watch list candidate, very nice consolidation. trading neutral you could try different strategies or just wait, for the break either direction. takes a lot to push it to the upper trend line,

[MC]

I really like those setups Chan. Excellent lookin plays that are showing good volume and support even in the bloody market.

Thanks,
MC

[Chan]

Smithfield Foods Inc (NYSE: SFD)

Smithfield Foods chairman to sell 1 million shares
Mar 12, 2008 (The Virginian-Pilot - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX News Network) --
Joseph W. Luter III, chairman and former chief executive officer of Smithfield Foods Inc., said he intends to sell 1 million shares of Smithfield stock in a filing last week with the Securities and Exchange Commission that was announced Tuesday.

Luter reported to the SEC on Friday that he had sold 159,600 shares of common stock, worth $29.30 to $29.37 each, raising about $4.68 million. He still owns about 5 million shares worth about $140 million at Tuesday's closing price of $28.02 a share.




Smithfield Foods (SFD) NewsBite - Smithfield Foods Down on Slipping Meat Futures


Mar 12, 2008 (Fresh Brewed Media via COMTEX News Network) --
Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD) opened at 28.00. So far today, the stock has hit a low of 27.52 and a high of 28.14. SFD is now trading at 27.67, down 0.35 (-1.25%). The stock hit its 52 week high of 35.79 in July and set its 52 week low of 23.75 in January. SFD rose through the first half of 2007, but has been slipping since August. Shares of Smithfield Foods have been trading lower, hurt by lower meat futures. Technical indicators for the stock are neutral and improving while S&P gives SFD a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating. If you're looking for a hedged play on this stock, consider an April bear-call credit spread above the $30 range. SFD stock could rise up to 8.4% before expiration and this position would still be profitable.


Smithfield to Close NC Plant, 476 Jobs to be Relocated - Up Fractionally


Boston, Mar 11, 2008 (MidnightTrader via COMTEX News Network) --
Smithfield Foods (SFD) unit Smithfield Packing will close a smoked ham manufacturing plant in Kinston, NC where 476 people work, AP reported.

The workers will be offered jobs at other plants and the co. will continue normal operations at a more modern ham facility that opened in Nov. 2006 in Kinston.

Portions of the plant that's being closed were built in 1948, and Smithfield said it's too costly to modernize.

The co. employs more than 10,000 people in NC.